The nation’s population growth is clustered in the South and the West, and that’s a major reason why the electric co-op network continues to expand, even during the recent economic downturn.
The number of Americans served by electric co-ops is increasing faster than the national rate of population growth, according to data compiled by NRECA’s Strategic Analysis Unit and newly released figures from the 2010 Census.
In fact, co-ops are growing faster than even the fastest-growing states, according to population statistics. The population served by co-ops rose at a brisker clip than overall population growth in 45 of the 47 states served by co-ops.
For example, Nevada was the fastest growing state in the nation during the last decade, with a 35.1 percent population increase, according to a Census briefing released March 24. Yet co-op growth outpaced that from 1999 to 2009, with a 42 percent increase.
“This is part of a longer-term trend we’ve been seeing, where co-ops have been exceeding the national average in terms of consumer growth,” said Mike Ganley, director of NRECA’s Strategic Analysis Unit.
The growth rates for the population and co-ops are not precisely comparable, because the Census covers 2000 to 2010, while the latest decade of NRECA data runs from 1999 to 2009.
Still, the pattern is unmistakable?co-op growth is very strong, as the number of Americans served by co-ops jumped an estimated 22.6 percent from 1999 to 2009. Meanwhile, the U.S. population increased by 9.7 percent to 308.7 billion, which Census analysts called the smallest single-decade increase since the 1930s.
Most of the general population increase occurred in southern and western states, which the Census said accounted for 84.4 percent of the national growth in the last 10 years.
Those numbers were reflected in co-op totals. From 1999 to 2009, co-ops in both Texas and Georgia served more than 1 million additional residents than during the previous 10 years. Florida gained more than 500,000 served and North Carolina more than 400,000.
The growth even touched Wyoming, which lost population between 1980 and 1990, but surpassed the national average growth between 2000 and 2010 with a 14.1 percent boost in population. The percentage of Wyoming residents served by co-ops increased even faster?by 17.4 percent.
The recession of 2008-09 slowed growth across the board, as co-ops grew by 0.6 percent in 2009, according to the NRECA Strategic Analysis Unit.
Still, NRECA analysts say, three-quarters of all co-ops experienced a net increase in 2008, even though new housing starts were at all-time lows and customer growth was flat across the country.
While the Census has not yet released extensive new data on rural areas, it is likely that growth within states was more concentrated in suburban and exurban areas. In addition, analysts noted, large gains or losses by a single large co-op can have an exaggerated effect on statewide totals.
“As long as the population shift continues toward the South and the West,” Ganley said, ” it is likely that we’ll see strong continued overall co-op growth.”
By Steven Johnson